Calvinism on the Rise: A New Barna Study Challenges the Reformed Revival in America by Peter Lumpkins

Whether one reads the young, restless, and reformed guru, Collin Hansen, or takes seriously Ed Stetzer’s statistics that suggests Calvinism is on the rise (especially in the SBC), or accepts the rhetoric that Reformed church planting leads the pack by a country mile in new church starts, The Barna Group’s newly released study “Is There a “Reformed Movement” in American Churches?” rains on the Calvinistic come-back parade >>>

For at least 10 years, Barna has tracked American non-Catholic clergy who identify the churches they serve as "Calvinist or Reformed."  Presently, about a third suggests this phrase identifies them.  What’s worth noting is, the percentage is relatively unchanged over the 10 year period (in fact, the raw percentage actually decreased from 32% to 31% presently). Barna’s conclusion is, “an examination of a series of studies among active clergy during the past decade indicates that the proportion that embraces the Reformed label has remained flat over the last 10 years” (emphasis mine). On the other hand, those who embrace "Wesleyan or Arminian" is notably down but virtually the same as those identify as "Calvinist or Reformed" (32% identify as "Wesleyan or Arminian"). 

So far as generational matters are concerned, of young pastors (ages 27 to 45) surveyed, 29% described themselves as "Calvinist or Reformed."  while 34% identified as "Wesleyan or Arminian." My own age bracket (boomer generation) was relatively the same as the young generation (about half/half) However, the ones least likely to identify as either were pastors 65 or older.

Denominational parameters revealed a decisive edge in mainline bodies for "Wesleyan or Arminian" at 47% and "Calvinist or Reformed" at 29%. On the other hand, non-mainlines were slightly more “Calvinist or Reformed” (35% to 30% for "Wesleyan or Arminian"). In addition, though many view “Calvinist or Reformed” as more likely to be theologically conservative, Barna notes “a greater proportion of these leaders described themselves as "theologically liberal" than was true among Wesleyan/Arminian leaders (17% versus 13%).” Similarly surprising the slight edge  “Wesleyan or Arminian” had (65%)  to seminary completion (“Calvinist or Reformed”, 62%).

Some initial observations

First, the much publicized revival of “Reformed” theology in America may be nothing more than a over-blown news story.  Indeed Time Magazine’s proclamation that Neo-Calvinism is one of the top 10 ideas changing the world right now may have been significantly premature. Is it possible that the young, restless, and reformed looks much more pervasive than it is because of its latent tendency toward what church growth expert, C. Peter Wagoner, once described of self-absorbed churches—navel-gazing? Same speakers, same conferences (with different names), same panel-discussions, same books, same mentors, same agenda, same, same, same…

Second, while Ed Stetzer supposed in his statistics an incredible increase of Calvinists in the SBC, along with a rise in seminary graduates who profess “Calvinist or Reformed,” his numbers are definitively at odds with Barna. Understand:  I am not necessarily challenging the validity of Stetzer’s numbers at this point. Rather what I am noting is, assuming Lifeway numbers are fairly accurate, what is apparently happening in the SBC is not what is happening in the larger church culture according to Barna’s research.  

If this is so, one must ask why? Is there a connection between the rise of “Calvinist or Reformed” focuses on our seminary campuses and the SBC?  Are we allowing a “Calvinist or Reformed” agenda to take place in our convention similar to the “Calvinist or Reformed” agenda taking place at Southern Baptist Theological Seminary and Southeastern Baptist Theological Seminary?  Why is Calvinism on the rise in the SBC, when, in Barna’s words, “[Calvinism] remained flat over the last 10 years” in all Protestant bodies?

What is more, if Southern Baptists are being "calvinized" in such a way as is atypical in the church at large, is this not a phenomenon about which to be especially concerned? Are top positions in the denominational structure being stacked with high-profile Calvinists? Is the number of Calvinist leaders in the convention atypically high? I remain highly interested in whom the trustee's search committee names as the next president of the International Mission Board. Will he have undeniable ties with Al Mohler's strict Calvinist coalition in Louisville, Kentucky?

We wait to see.   

Third, while we are told being “Calvinist” or “Arminian” is insignificant (at least insignificant according to Ed Stetzer contra Al Mohler) to our younger pastors, and that they just want to “preach the Word,” Barna concludes young pastors are just as inclined to spar over theological labels as the famed boomer generation.  In fact, according to Barna, pastors 65 and over are the ones least likely to concern themselves with theological labeling—at least so far as “Calvinist” or “Arminian” is concerned.  Perhaps we could learn from our elder spiritual fathers.

Fourth, while Al Mohler insists the contours of “Reformed” constructs are the sole literary messiah to deliver us from godless Liberalism, thus officially “protecting” the gospel, Barna’s research suggests more “Calvinist or Reformed” pastors consider themselves as “theological liberals” than do those pastors who are self-described “Wesleyan or Arminian.” Similarly, more “Arminian or Wesleyan” pastors are likely to be seminary graduates indicating a myth exists about the exclusively “scholarly,” “academic,” aura claimed by many for Calvinism in distinction to non-Calvinism.  

Finally, there is hope for many young, non-Calvinists who may feel over-whelmed because they do not buy what neo-Calvinism sells—a neatly wrapped, theological package which can answer all questions about life and theology with the famous five petals of a Dutch flower. Rather they remain biblicists at heart and skirt systematic theology for a decisive and robust biblical theology. Additionally, because they do not embrace the muscular Dortian Calvinism experienced in the young, restless, and reformed communities, conferences, and other events, non-Calvinists prefer to stay-away. This could result in a sort of communitarian abjection among many young non-Calvinists. In other words, they sense they just don't "belong" or "don't fit in" among their generational peers. 

However, according to Barna, of the youngest generation of pastors (ages 27 to 45), only 29% described themselves as “Calvinist or Reformed,” while 34% identified as “Wesleyan or Arminian.” If Barna is correct, not only does this pull the theological rug from under our conventional wisdom that young pastors, as a whole, are swallowing "Reformed" theology hook 'n all, there also remains every reason to predict future conferences springing up which focus less on the “five points of Calvinism” and “Reformed” constructs of thought “necessary” to “protect” the gospel, and more on a John 3:16 Conference approach, with young pastors leading the charge.

With that, I am…

Peter

Read Barna's Full Report

Comments

[BDW]

Thanks much for pointing out this fascinating study.

This study should serve as a reminder to SBC Calvinists that conservative evangelicals don't have a corner on the Reformed label with 17% in the Reformed camp self-identifying as "theologically liberal."

And that figure wouldn't include a couple of my Reformed colleagues who are Princeton grads, Bartians, active in PC-USA who would reject the theologically liberal label.

[peter]

Aaron,

You're very welcome, brother. Barna's study seems to me as a much needed corrective to a self-absorbed movement which suggests more influence and providential blessings than, after all, is sustained by the numbers (assuming, of course, the numbers are fairly representative).

Grace.

With that, I am...
Peter

[Jim Upchurch]

85% of all statistics are inaccurate ;)

[peter]

Jim,

Actually, who dares dispute you? Not me. I not much for stats either.

Grace, brother.
With that, I am...
Peter

[William]

I'll stick with anecdotes: I don't hear of as many churches being destroyed by rabid calvinists as I did ten years ago.

[A. Price]

However, take a 'look' at the MBC. At our convention's 'Pastor's Conference', this past Oct.,'headlined' were, Dr.Danny Akin, and Ed Stetzer; and, the Pastor's who put it together, were in the Calvinistic/Reformed mold. IMHO, that's the direction they want to take the convention in; it's just a matter of time til they can 'boo' all the 'ole timers' off the stage, if we don't go along!

[Jim Upchurch]

Sorry Peter,

I heard that somewhere and couldn't resist. I didn't
mean that seriously, just think it's funny... A stat pointing out the inaccuracies of stats.

[Tim Rogers]

Brother Jim,

Do you have a study to back those stats up? :)

Blessings,
Tim

[Kevin Davis]

I don't think anybody -- including Mohler, Hansen, Stetzer, etc. -- will find this surprising. The increase in Calvinism is among a specific, but important, group: young male seminarians/pastors in evangelical churches. A survey of churches across the country will include a very large proportion of mainline churches (where, e.g., both the PCUSA and the UCC are "Reformed") and churches with pastors who received their theological formation during the last century, from the 1940's to the 1990's. Thus, the survey results are hardly surprising. However, if you did a survey of seminarians at evangelical seminaries (TEDS, Gordon-Conwell, Southern, etc.), you will find a far greater number of self-identified "Calvinists" than in the 1990's or before. That's the trend that Time Magazine was picking-up on. Moreover, a survey of young evangelicals pursuing doctorates will yield an even higher percentage of Calvinists, which means that the influence will be long-term.

[sãoray]

Kevin: "However, if you did a survey of seminarians at evangelical seminaries (TEDS, Gordon-Conwell, Southern, etc.), you will find a far greater number of self-identified "Calvinists" than in the 1990's or before."
"Moreover, a survey of young evangelicals pursuing doctorates will yield an even higher percentage of Calvinists, which means that the influence will be long-term."

where is this survey? or are you hypothesising?

[Don Johnson]

As far as Gordon-Conwell goes, I would say yes, most of those graduating seem to be Calvinists. I live about 50 miles from the school and know several who have attended. Even though many had different beliefs going in, it seems most are coming out as Calvinists.

I know of a pastor who keeps sending his young men who are called to the ministry to Gordon, because he went there over 50 years ago. When they come back to the church most of them have become Calvinists, much to the pastor's dismay.

[Jared Moore]

saoray,

I've pointed to the survey, at least among Southern Baptists, on my blog here: http://jaredmoore.exaltchrist.com/2010/10/31/9-more-reasons-why-the-sbc-is-in-trouble-if-calvinism-is-a-threat/

Or, you can look at the study itself here: http://www.lifeway.com/lwc/files/lwcF_LifeWay_Research_Calvinism_and_SBC_Recent_Seminary_Graduates_Ppt.ppt

I'm not sure about other seminaries though.

[Kevin Davis]

sãoray,

Yes, I'm hypothesizing from what I've seen. I wish there were a survey of evangelical seminarians and doctoral students. I don't know what the exact percentage of Calvinists would be. My claims are rather modest: I think there has been a marked increase of Calvinists in the last decade than prior decades, but I don't know percentages. Moreover, such a survey would be difficult to ascertain since "Calvinism" is considered a fairly broad category in most academic settings, and it would include the likes of Karl Barth and Thomas Torrance (both denied limited atonement), not just Hodge and Warfield.

[peter]

All
At Georgia Baptist Conv

[sãoray]

A four point (or less) calvinist is not much of a calvinist at all, according to Sproul. This is why I would never call Barth a calvinist. and probably a good portion of these kids at seminary aren't either.

btw, reformed folks haven't registered "Predestination" as a trademark, other theologians are free to use it with fear of being labeled calvinist.

I appreciate Barna's work, I think it's indicative of the real power of the moderate christian, regardless of the YRR drum-beating.

[A.M. Mallett]

Peter,
I liken the "new Calvinist resurgence" to pulling stocked trout out of your own backyard pond i.e. the navel gazing analogy of Wagner. I was curious on another related topic however. If general and particular Baptist doctrines are not compatible with one another, and I believe that is the case, do you feel the SBC is past time to make a decision to determine what they are and what their seminaries should teach?

[Ron Hale]

Revivals, Reformations, Resurgences ... over the last thirty years, I've heard men of God on conference, church, and convention stages promise the next Great Awakening due to one of these three "R's" of Baptist and Evangelical life. While these promised movements have let me down; Jesus has never let me down! And, I praise His Holy Name!

Peter, I believe we have "some" Christian leaders with the knack and knowledge of how to tap into the rebellious spirit of youth and have spread the idea that we [the old guys and older generations] have been hiding the treasure of truth [the Gospel] from younger generations. I believe these leaders are presenting themselves as agents of Re-discovery! "Come discover the truth that others have been trying to keep from you [hide]"... seems to be their message.

A young college preacher boy or seminarian can feel pretty powerful with a dissenting doctrine, a blog, and a feeling that he's redicovered lost theological treasure that was hijacked or hidden by churchmen who ... still have something to conceal and hide. Conspiracy breeds contempt!

What I'm not sure of are the consequences a Christian leader will face for turning one generation against the other, son against father, younger preacher boy against his old country preacher.

[Kevin Davis]

sãoray,

Sproul is hardly the decisive voice on whether limited atonement is essential to Reformed faith and praxis. Richard Muller, and a host of recent historians of post-Reformation dogmatics, have written in detail about how universal atonement ("hypothetical universalism" in England, or "Amyrauldianism" on the Continent) was considered within the pale of Reformed orthodoxy during the 17th century.